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Just a point here about how to follow horses you select: Don't always expect them to win next time out. Sometimes they will, mostly they won't, but if you're astute enough you should be able to pinpoint runners who will win WITHIN their next 3 starts. My own performance in the Firepower newsletter shows a continuing level stakes profit by following my listed horses for 3 starts.
Second-last in the Baguette was County Way. Here was another horse always a long way back. Nothing of account there. Cash On Schedule was third last. Now he was listed 8th at the m on the Sportsman's result chart, but the m picture shows him back 12th; he finished 14th.
In this case, I would go and check stewards' reports for the meeting to see if there is any explanation for Cash On Schedule's run. Sometimes they can explain a failure. There are many cases like Cash On Schedule's which you have to dig into a little deeper before deciding whether to put them down on the 'follow up' list. Take the time to file stewards' reports most Sydney city meetings, and some provincial ones, are published in the two editions of the Sportsman.
In the case of Cash On Schedule there was no mention of any untoward incident in the stewards' report. I would take this further by having a look at the horse's run a couple of times on the video; if you can do this, too, well that's all to the good. And so you work your way through the field of runners.
You are looking for horses which: a made up ground from the rear to the middle of the field. Sometimes you can clearly see that a horse is blocked. Often a video replay is needed to provide further corroboration. The strength of the performance of a horse can sometimes only be evaluated after video analysis.
The camera charts, while very useful, cannot talk and you cannot re-wind them. The vital ingredient of what you do is to find a horse which can deliver within 3 runs and make a profit for you at level stakes. Trained by St Gold Coast trainer Leon Morton left Doomben aiming for the stars after his leg-troubled galloper Mr Slick returned to winning form with an action-p Trainer Gai Wate Melbourne Cup winner Viewed will remain in Sydney for a trio of autumn Group One races with trainer Bart Cummings happy with the entire's soft barr Racing officials have put the starting time of Saturday's Rosehill meeting back more than an hour due to the heatwave forecast for Sydney over the Impressive debut winner Killian has inherited the precociousness of his dam Preserve but whether he can learn quickly enough to be a Blue Diamond c Talented filly Manaudou did everything right in her maiden win at Eagle Farm to convince trainer Kelso Wood bigger things might be in store during Pat Hyland won't be totally surprised if his stable star Zarita upsets some of the country's best weight-for-age horses first-up in Sunday's CF Orr It's easy these days to convince yourself that by looking at video replays and turn-and-finish photoform you can, suddenly, transform yourself int These days the serious punter yearns for information and on first glance in the newspapers on the east coast you'd think Perth racing barely exist Those stupid whip rules are bringing more bad headlines for racing There are those who claim they never bet on midweek races.
I doubt if there are many professionals among their ranks. Most of the pro's I know lik How much of a future does Daniel Ganderton have in racing? He was suspended for a month at Warwick Farm on Friday for a "dishonest action" and also Jockeys have threatened to take industrial action during the Melbourne Cup carnival over the lack of government commitment to funding the National Fighting back A splinter group of STC members says it's quietly confident it can secure the numbers to force the Sydney Turf Club to call an extr Trained by Steve Richards, Rostova created a big impression at Trainer Gai Waterhouse was keen to campaign the colt at Royal Asco Melbourne Cup winner Viewed will remain in Sydney for a trio of autumn Group One races with trainer Bart Cummings happy with the entire's soft barrier trial at Randwick on Friday.
Viewed galloped ov Trainer Greg Eurell said he was mysti Newitt has ridden Light Fantastic in sev Racing officials have put the starting time of Saturday's Rosehill meeting back more than an hour due to the heatwave forecast for Sydney over the weekend. Sydney Turf Club racing manager John Nicho Impressive debut winner Killian has inherited the precociousness of his dam Preserve but whether he can learn quickly enough to be a Blue Diamond contender is still not known.
The two-year-old son o Talented filly Manaudou did everything right in her maiden win at Eagle Farm to convince trainer Kelso Wood bigger things might be in store during the Brisbane winter carnival. Manaudou, named after Pat Hyland won't be totally surprised if his stable star Zarita upsets some of the country's best weight-for-age horses first-up in Sunday's CF Orr Stakes at Caulfield.
The former champion jockey, w It's easy these days to convince yourself that by looking at video replays and turn-and-finish photoform you can, suddenly, transform yourself into a winning punter. Oh that it were that easy! These days the serious punter yearns for information and on first glance in the newspapers on the east coast you'd think Perth racing barely exists.
Coverage is very basic with, at times, not even Most of the pro's I know like nothing better than to bet on the city and provi Jockeys have threatened to take industrial action during the Melbourne Cup carnival over the lack of government commitment to funding the National Jockeys Trust. Riders will meet after the third ra A splinter group of STC members says it's quietly confident it can secure the numbers to force the Sydney Turf Club to call an extraordinary general meeting in a bid to derail its c The Sportsman is best for Sydney meetings.
The Adelaide Mail on Sundays carries good Adelaide strips. When studying Sydney form, read the 'comments' next to the photos first and then look at the pictures. Study the runs of the unplaced horses firstly, then move up to the placegetters. If you can use, use video study in conjunction with your camera chart work. Club together with a mate, or two mates, to get hold of the video replays you need.
There is money to be made from camera chart and video study. These are just a few recent examples. I list them here only to press home my point that by studying the camera charts, and the videos if you can, you do stand a terrific chance of putting yourself into the money.
Remember: Choose three or four horses, no more than six, from a meeting. Follow them for three starts each, or until they win a race and then drop them. The first thing we can note here is that both increase and decrease in distance by m or more have the lowest strike rates return on investment. This would probably come as no surprise to anyone, and it links back to my theory that horses are not machines.
The main one being that the horse has probably not had the ideal training campaign, and something may have gone wrong causing it to miss a run, and now it needs to step to a less suitable race to try and stay on track for its main goal of the campaign. The other might be that there are simply no other suitable races around at the right interval between runs, so the trainer simply needs to give the horse a run to keep it fit.
When you are looking at distance variations from one run to the next, consider how the horse performed at its most recent start. If the horse failed for example over m two weeks ago after previously showing good form up to m and now finds itself coming back to m, it just stands to reason that you can probably forget the run over the longer distance and not be afraid of the drop back.
In looking at the horses lead-up form you might find a horse that has been finishing its races off well and looking for more ground. In this case, a step back in distance might be a negative to be careful of. There can be a trap here, though, with horses increasing in distance to what seems. Only consider the leading selector from each paper or specialist. If only one selector picks a certain horse to win, it is the selection provided that no other selector of the ones you have chosen selects the horse for first or second.
Add the last three starts to the market position not the odds but the position, e. The lowest total sum total is the selection, provided there is only one. Note the pun on the title of the system? It really is some plan. The selection is the most recent last start winner in the field. Never support a horse which is odds on: delete the race. Tick the horses ridden by the top three riders in your state.
Tick any that are also carrying top weight after any claims and allowances are made. If a final contender is 3 kg clear of the field, it becomes a selection. Tick any horse which is initially weighted to give its field at least 3 kg. The horse becomes a selection if it is carrying its full allotted weight. In any handicap, you would expect that a horse in this situation is, to all intents and purposes, better than most other horses in the field; or at least it is on many occasions, and these occasions can sometimes lead to very nicely priced winners.
Take any horse that has done better each time at its last three runs for example, form figures of , or ; but not Delete any of these horses that won at their last start. If only one qualifying horse remains in the race, it is your selection. Tick any horse that is having its third or fourth start after a spell of at least 55 days. Delete any horse that did not run fourth or better at its first start after the spell.
Delete any horse that ran better than fourth at its second or third run back. If only one or two remain as qualifiers, support them. Consider only big two-year-old races. The selection is the first local horse that you meet as you go. Delete any horse with a form total of more than seven. Also quinella and trifecta horses if more than one qualifier remains. You can also bet for a win if there is only one, or perhaps two, selections.
Tick it again if it won or placed second at its last start, or at its second last start or both. Tick it once again if it is in the top three of the original weights. If it has two ticks, back it each way. If it has three ticks, double the bet for win only. Away you go then, enjoy yourself! Names like Catalogue, Hi Jinx, Even Stevens the punters at least twigged eventually with this staying star!
In August , a little known South Australian gelding resumed from a 27week spell with a barnstorming win in a Class 3 at Morphettville. From there the son of Zabeel worked through his grades and the longer distances easily to culminate with a super-impressive Melbourne Cup second, beating all comers including So You Think bar the irrepressible Americain. So who are the progressive horses to follow this year?
The picture will obviously become clearer as the spring lead-ups commence, but there are already a couple that I will be following this spring, soundness dependent of course. In fact, none of them probably will — that is the very nature of speculative long-range predictions. I am most interested in a pair of Mark Kavanagh-trained gallopers who I think could both make a name for themselves this spring as potential Cups horses.
The British import December Draw created a big impression in his first two Australian runs and certainly fits the right profile for a prospective Caulfield Cup contender. Though the son Medecis only over tackled Listed company once in England for a third over m in a small field of six, it has been proven recently that outstanding Group form at home is not necessarily required for success in Australia see My Kingdom Of Fife, Stand To Gain etc.
He looked very good winning first-up over m at Flemington in early May, before putting in a mightily impressive runaway 5L win over Gold In Dubai at the same track over m a fortnight later. VISIT — practicalpunting. The other Kav-trained horse that should be worth following is the fouryear-old Street Cry mare Midnight Martini, who strung in three on the trot during the Melbourne winter and certainly looks a nice progressive type who can take the step to Group company.
It will be interesting to see which way Kav decides to go with her, but he obviously knows the Street Cry breed well, and should place her to advantage. They are both trained by Carey, both by Helenus, and both only performed moderately in the three-year-old staying races — Cedarberg running 7th in the AJC Derby, Ulundi 10th in the Victorian equivalent. Cedarberg showed immense improvement in the autumn of his four-year-old year to win the G1 BMW however — after a cracking run in the G2 Herbert Power in the spring — and I think Ulundi might also have the scope to be competitive at similar grade should he reappear after his recent freshen.
This son of Blackfriars has only had the five career starts but continues to find the line strongly, and I think we could see a very serious racehorse when extended beyond m for the first time. He looks absolutely top-shelf to my eye and though I do have a slight nagging doubt about Moody as a conditioner of stayers, I feel this bloke could be the star stayer his trainer has been waiting for. And how about one completely from left-field?
A four-year-old with just four career starts to her name, I was quite taken by her win in a Cranbourne maiden over m in April, before she put in a solid effort in listed fillies company over a mile, settling back and running fairly well for 8th. Given her stout breeding, it is likely that she will only continue to improve. Darley looks to again have a very strong hand this season — which is only natural after their domination of two-year-old features in the autumn and winter — and I will be paying particular attention to their Caulfield Guineas nominations.
However, Darley juveniles are generally very well educated, and one would think that the necessary adjustments to his race-day manners have been made during his winter spell. This could easily have improved Kuhreihen by several lengths, which might just see him become a competitive force at the highest level. I thought the Viscount gelding Tunes was pretty impressive in winning his debut by 5. As for Helmet, I am a firm believer that he should be kept very safe as a major factor in the Cox Plate, in what looks an extremely weak year in the weight-for-age ranks.
She only had three starts as a two-year-old but put in a bottling fifth behind Triple Asset in the Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes at Flemington last autumn, and I think the mile should suit her this prep with a bit of further maturing under her belt. The former Victorian Kincaple was most impressive winning at his Perth debut, having headed west after his failure in the Adelaide Cup.
He backed that super impressive effort up with another strong performance over the m in Saturday grade, taking a while to wind up but really getting warm late to narrowly go down to the in-form Trustee Brown. Given the generally weak staying ranks, he can continue on his winning way as he stretches out in trip. Paul Harvey rode the chestnut patiently off the speed before weaving a passage and really letting him go in the final m.
It appeared that the five-year-old won with plenty in reserve and I think he can go on with the job. Caves Road has already proven himself a quality conveyance by winning three of his six career starts, and I think there are greater successes in store for this son of Lion Heart. He followed that up with a strong frontrunning performance over m, showing a stack of speed to lead all the way.
Mantango — 0. Lindsey Smith can continue to place this nice versatile prospect to advantage in the coming weeks. She showed enough at her next two starts — again making up good late ground on both occasions — before being sent for a five-week freshen. She is no star but I am confident she can break her maiden status at a mid-weeker in the near future, with the mile and perhaps beyond looking well within her scope. She relished the extra m and really found the line strongly for a 0. The daughter of Love A Dane looks set to improve again over more ground, and should open her account in the near future.
She appears to have been set for a Thousand Guineas campaign at this stage and I think she can measure up to top company. Follow her with confidence. It used to be quite a common fact that when they headed towards the Rosehill carnival, they would have in all likelihood a goodly handful of successful runs under their belts.
I still think that one of the most valuable criteria, so far as identifying the best of the babies, is always going to be a relatively unblemished record. Sepoy had won the Blue Diamond in what was very like a demolition job with a wrecking ball, and consequently his effort in the principal Sydney race came as no sort of surprise to anybody. In fact, he was always well up in the betting, mostly favourite, as befitted the horse which had demonstrated the right to be anticipated as the best.
For me this has been one of the very best guides over many years, and so far as the youngsters are concerned, I have time and again, virtually every year in fact, come up with good priced winners in the early races using very little but this basic observation. Generally speaking, after a win in city grade the next start for one of these two-year-olds will see it lumbered with a penalty. In other words, if a horse has already won a relatively equivalent race in town then you can expect some sort of weight penalty.
Sprint race penalties, especially up to m, are rarely able to blunt the edge of proven babies. This stage is gained by experience: they learn. When we come to Part Two. It becomes even more important from our point of view if they win the race. The very idea of taking incredibly short odds, based on a level of knowledge I described rather colourfully above, must surely be laughable for any serious investor.
Well, so what? True, an occasional sensation arrives, and sometimes, as in the case of Black Caviar, or for that matter Makybe Diva, they turn up late by relative appearance standards. That will always happen. But you can save yourself a lot of money and a lot of heartache and at the same time show a respect for your own intelligence level by shying away from something which has never started.
Let me repeat: the only knowledge you can have of this horse is what you have been told by someone who has a vested interest in putting a column together. Later on in their career, horses can come to the fore, even the. Sometimes you get a mare which goes to stud a maiden and produces nothing but stars.
Incidentally, this is often a golden opportunity for an each way bet. I see several cases every spring and into the summer where our particular focus horses are. Peeled out into the centre of the course in the straight and let down well. Responded well when afford clear run m but the post came too soon. Rear, blocked long time in the straight, came free late and ran on in the last m.
Settled nicely in rear, gained between rivals in the straight, split horses from m out and came strongly for third. Members have access to the best-bet selections of HK-based Kevin Knight. He did pretty well on the track and managed to pick up the Australian Guineas-Gr. Actually, I have no idea either, but I do know that his famous Dubaian owner, Sheik Hamdan Al Maktoum, will have had something to do with it. I confess that I was a bit disappointed when I found this out. In fact it got worse.
When I further discovered that this no doubt glittering suburb was split into two excitingly. I mean, they hardly set the pulse racing do they? Anyway, one horse that seemed determinedly well in herself this year is yet another fine Peter Moody filly racking up a formidable unbeaten run. Not bad really. Black Caviar took a year-and-a-half to get from her debut to her first Group 1 win, so the champion trainer of Melbourne and Victoria should be heartily applauded for creating and nursing this achievement from such an inexperienced filly.
Her spring campaign is destined to rise and crescendo through September and October, with her grand finale being in the Caulfield Cup. Zabeel has, of course, been an absolutely superb sire over the years with a long list of major stars to his credit. I did venture to suggest in an article earlier this year that the reason he may have been so successful may not be due to himself alone but is, perhaps, more because of his putting two other super star sires, Sir Tristram and Nureyev, right up close in the pedigrees of every one of his progeny.
His genetic influence seems to be pitched as something like that of a sprintermiler. A problem that leads to confusion about the distance they might be most useful at when the horse gets older. Now though, Lights Of Heaven has reached the trust of a major human talent in the shape of Peter Moody.
His stable has no doubt been rumbling and revving its engine over the winter with a view to roaring off again in the new season in search of another title. Gosh, even from the bare form of that Australasian Oaks we can see that there must be genuine talent housed within Lights Of Heaven.
I wonder if she can do more. Not for a living, but because I find it rewarding. My writings, however, never present a detailed proven approach to winning because greyhound tracks vary from one another so much. A plan that works at one track may well fall flat at another. That is, how to build a successful approach.
In that light, I will here present a condensed version of the lesson plan involved in putting together a system that can put money in your pocket. Said plan will then fit your skill level, and work best at the track around which it is built.
Be aware that while this preparation will pay good dividends, it will require some time and effort to construct. Those not willing to devote this time and effort will be the ones who will be feeding the pools that will provide your profits. This is the basis of the information that you will be learning to interpret. You will also need to be aware that there are a number of factors that can be measured and compared. Gain or loss in the early stages of the race ; Late Speed, Does the dog gain or lose positions in the stretch run?
One length behind the winning dog is substantially different than finishing 2nd. Are certain starting boxes more or less favourable at this particular. There are a few other measurable factors as well, though I consider them less pertinent. Here is how you do that: Rank the dogs from 1 to 8 in terms of the factor being tested. How many OF the 2nd. Ranked dogs WON?
And so forth. In terms of winning, keep in mind that One dog. Therefore, if any of your tests produce a result, of say, 20 per cent, you have identified a factor that matters. If a test produces WIN results of only, say, 4 per cent, you likewise are on to a means of making meaningful distinctions. Which ones? That will be found in your studies. Next, how are you going to obtain this data with which you will be building a system?
Sorry — no shortcuts here. No computer software that you can download for the answers. Should you wager on these races as you collect this data? You will become readily able to recognise which factors are the most pertinent, those that are less so, and those that tend to be a waste of time.
Done with sufficient diligence, this will give you a reasonable scoring of the race. Once a race is finished, write down the finish in the order of your selections. Suppose your third selection won, your fifth selection places, and your first selection came in third. Document also the dividends paid from the different pools in each of these races.
Then, on paper, see what end result various type of wagers would have produced. Would straight WIN bets have generated a profit? Try several. Now, you will have before you the means of crafting a professional and profitable approach. Clearly, all of this takes some time and effort. This is true if one wants to make a success at any undertaking. The choice is yours. And you can! For more insights into greyhound racing please see my website: www.
Stayed on nicely that day suggesting middle distances should suit in time. Can win a nice race this season though in listed or group class. His latest victory came at Glorious Goodwood where he overcame interference to win easily. Trainer and jockey rate him in the same bracket as Canford Cliffs. Heads to the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket next where he will be very hard to beat. Can be expected to develop into a Guineas contender next season.
Has been running well all season being placed at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood. His latest third at Goodwood behind the well regarded Hoof It was particularly good form. Granted luck in running he can win a big sprint handicap between now and the end of the season and races like the Portland Handicap at Doncaster and the Gold Cup Handicap at Ayr are sure to be on the agenda.
Was originally thought of as a St Leger type but has exceeded those expectations with runaway victories at Ascot. Firstly at the Royal meeting but latterly in the Group 1 King George Stakes where he beat top older horse Workforce easily. Gained an overdue success last time out at Newbury winning a listed race over 1m4f. Now he has his head in front he can win again possibly in a Group 3.
Effective on all ground. A winner last time out at York over 1m6f, where his performance was notable for the fact that he made all the running in a field of 20 and battled off numerous challengers up the home straight.
Is returning to York for the prestigious Ebor Handicap and will be a major contender. Should stay 2m so may turn out to be a Group class stayer next season. Next month, we will feature a s article by Jon Hudson. Those who believe in it make the sweeping generalisation that horses racing second-up from a spell never win.
They avoid them like the plague. But what do we really know about second-uppers? How much research has been done into their performances? As far as I can tell, not much. As a form fan, I discount the second-up syndrome mentality and treat each horse on its individual merits. I recommend that you do the same. It is a fact that some horses perform well when having their second race after a spell. Others do not. But this applies to just about every aspect of horseracing.
A friend of mine for a long time has made money by looking for horses which ran well at their second start from a spell either winning or finishing within three lengths of the winner and then backing them at their third run in. He gets many longpriced winners and placegetters.
You could even extend this idea to, say, five lengths for horses having their second start — the five lengths. A second-up winner fitting this pattern was longshot Our Caliph at Randwick on May Some horses may need three or four weeks, some longer, to recover from a tough hit out. It does seem to me that a horse is likely to race better second-up when it has resumed from a spell of four months or more and gone okay at its first run back.
The significant aspect of the run was that Our Caliph was beaten only 4. Put over m in the same Welter class at the same track 19 days later, Our Caliph — ridden this time by Grant Cooksley compared to apprentice J. How many second-uppers were in this race? Only three. The other two were Westem Showdown and Ardent Dancer. Pretty good return in my book! This is but one example but I think it serves to show that a handy elimination rule or two for second-uppers can often pitch fork the small punter into some welcome longshot returns.
Much depends on how hard a run. Then there are those horses which invariably race well early in a campaign. Some horses are noted firstuppers; others have a history of losing first-up then improving sharply. Most horses, of course, take at least three or four runs to swing into top action. The punter who studies form in an all round way — casting aside likes and dislikes, hunches and biases — should always examine each horse on its merits.
Those punters with a computerised database going back 18 months and more will have no problem with this aspect; those punters without a database will have to use formguides like The Sportsman and check back as far as possible. All these points are important. In the case of Our Caliph, he was a winner at both track and distance at Randwick and there was a significant jockey change apprentice Whitney to senior hoop Cooksley. Another example of a second-upper winning at good odds — though not as good as those of Our Caliph was Poetic Launch.
Another example: Draft Choice resumed from a spell of around two and a half months and finished 3rd at Caulfield on May 8, beaten around a half length. These are but a few examples that can be gathered to make a dent in that old claim that you should never take seriously a horse racing second-up. And I was only up to race 5! It set me thinking. How much is too much when it comes to sitting down with a formguide and going through the various races?
Is there a point where you can simply strain your brain too much? I guess it depends on individual personality. Some people I know seem to have been born with the ability to study for long stretches at a time. Others I know get bored or restless after five minutes of just reading a newspaper or a book, let alone studying a formguide and making decisions.
Sometimes I can spend anything from an hour to three hours on one race. It all takes time. Take a simple m race. That might be for just one horse! Much depends on the approach you use. A friend who usually does well at the racing caper tells me he quickly picks out one race on the card and concentrates his attention on it.
Twenty minutes is his average time to look at the form. Many others might scoff at such an approach. The US expert George Kaywood has spent some time reviewing the situation of different approaches, and time taken, and so on. I had to read it! In that section, Ainslie talks about the differences among different successful handicapping methods.
Or the weekend player who, using just a few traditional handicapping factors, only bets a horse that won its last race. Or, likewise, in the same manner, the bettor who begins by eliminating any horse that won its last race. That must be a sign that I am getting older, because by the time you are reading this it means we have wrapped up yet another racing year. Stealing the show, no doubt, has to be the wonder mare Black Caviar.
One has to wonder slightly — is he just looking after the horse or is he now also looking after the unbeaten record? They all get beaten eventually, so I guess the day will come. The Cox Plate, of course, went to So You Think, who in any other year, without Black Caviar, would have been the standout all on his own.
He had a great year, and then was quickly whisked away from us, and has gone on to win overseas. It will be interesting to see where his path tracks from here. The Cup went back overseas last year with a very dominant win from Americain. It will be interesting to see where he goes from here. Will he come back to defend his title that looks very likely after his first-up win in France?
Can he do it? The emphatic nature of his Cup win has to stand him in good stead for a title defence. But back to that man Peter Moody. It seems obvious. The statistics back up exactly what I. As I write, there is still a meeting or two to play out this season, but Moody has a strike rate of around 21 per cent.
As I write, Moody leads by around about 60 winners from Mark Kavanagh. Continuing on the impressive list of achievements by Moody, he has also cracked the winners mark this season, a feat previously achieved by Freedman and Hayes. Black Caviar has obviously helped him take that title! Plenty of trainers want to shoot for the stars pretty quickly with their horses.
Some pull it off, others simply find themselves going around to make up the numbers. Plenty of time to ensure she was in peak condition when any injuries started to niggle, and plenty of time to progress through the classes before sweeping all before her in her most recent campaign.
Roll on the Peter P. Moody Express. Dasoudi put in a game run to finish second behind Veyron in the Easter Hcp at Ellerslie. A suitable target appears to be the Group 1 Guineas to be contested at Caulfield on October Enjoy the spring carnival and best wishes for your punting! What happens here is, they go and fail over the longer distance, which was perceived to be more suitable, sometimes at very short odds, and then come back in distance and win at longer odds!
The relevant pace of each race, and the length of finishing sprint the horse is capable of are the factors that are playing out here. Understanding the pace of races, and finishing sprints is a whole different topic, however! The other form factor that I think complements the distance variation for your selection is the number of days since its last run.
If you have a horse coming back sharply in distance from one week to the next, it may be less likely to handle it than a horse that may have had two or three weeks between runs as a small freshen up. This comes back to the logic theory of horses not being machines.
As I write this piece, the meeting at Caulfield on July 30 provided a race that shows just how volatile distance variations can be. I speak of the m 3yo event. The betting was dominated by Snitza and Lopov. Interestingly, most of the field, including these two that headed the betting, faced stiff rises in distance. Snitza started favourite following a very strong last start win over m.
The race on July 30 was run over m. Lopov faced a distance rise of about m into the race. Most of the field were rising a similar amount of distance to Snitza. To my way of thinking, this race could have been a recipe for disaster where a longshot result was likely due to the fact that the market had no true way of understanding the optimum distance range for a lot of the runners. The punters were prepared to leave Snitza at the top of the market with Lopov second pick.
Lopov was a big question mark in my opinion due to such a sharp. As the race turned out on July 30, Lopov recorded an easy win, running the distance right out, while Snitza was unable to run a place, and its form from its easy last start win was seemingly out the window.
The point of this example was to highlight that punters were more than happy to accept significant distance increases for the two favourites, yet had they been distance decreases I wonder whether the market would have been less accommodating? So, weighing everything up that we have looked at, what recommendations can be made overall when it comes to distances? I think the various figures explored here prove that beyond doubt.
Secondly, be more wary of a horse increasing in distance than those decreasing. When an increase is faced, check whether the distance the horse is increasing to is one that it has been successful over, or at least run well over in the past. Without a proven record, your guess as to whether it will handle it is just that, a guess. An extraordinary horse had passed before his eyes and the groundswell of emotion within him and around him left him agog that I could have considered anything else in the race.
He knew that this would be no ordinary horse race, because it contained an unbelievable superstar. Some of you may remember me talking about Pete. My best friend since childhood, Pete ended up residing in Paris, aged 21, while I lived in London at the same age. He went to a classy Parisian business school while I shuffled into a merchant bank to rub shoulders with the mightiest egos in town.
Not because we shared carnal relations God help me but largely because we frequented every insalubrious bar,. We never had a dull moment — apart from the hangovers, of course — and it was Pete who discovered with me the delight of pronouncing my family name in the way that any Frenchman would; giving us more fun than a box of Mexican jumping beans.
Oh the irony. Oh the mirth. When we found this out we laughed so hard we could not breathe. But I digress. Frankel was the issue. Pete, unbeknownst to me, had Eurostar-ed from Paris, deposited his luggage at his London flat and had then loafed down to the South Downs in Sussex to watch Frankel cross swords with another star miler in the shape of Canford Cliffs.
Canford Cliffs was a fivetime Group 1 winner up against the talk of the town in Frankel, and my little mucker, Pete, was to stand as witness. Sadly, my blog foolishly chose the. Most of the rest of the world was with Frankel. Nevertheless, texting me his whereabouts from the saloon bar at Goodwood, Pete crowed at me from his high spot on my beloved South Downs.
I slumped back in surprise on my West Australian sofa and smiled wryly amidst my mild cloud of jealousy. Petey-Boy was at Glorious Gooders! Curse him. They went down to post. They returned. Frankel mauled them. I was overjoyed by Frankel. A truly incredible feat. It would have felt a bit like opposing Dessie. Can it be any better than this? Based on his last two runs you would expect he is still on the improve.
It can be dangerous to assess a horse on form for the spring at this stage, and he was rock hard fit, but he looks the part. Won a mediocre affair at Randwick but did win with ridiculous ease. She had a good placing in the Brisbane winter before this and can be relied on to try her heart out. At her first run this time in, she was well settled and then just too good where it counted.
This is surely just the start of a great new season for her. Somehow just missed at Flemington and then the rider withdrew a protest. Surely close to another city win and Craig Williams suits. He won with a leg in the air at Flemington recently and showed his true worth. Has a nice combination of breeding lines and might very well go on with things.
Should handle the really wet too. Carried the topweight here. Just a joke really, treating her rivals with utter contempt. The son of West Quest has been a quality galloper from day one, putting together an impressive record of seven wins from 22 starts. Hopefully you can read this in time for the resuming run because he really is a gun 1stup galloper.
If not keep him in your sights anyway. Won out to m last prep. He put in a sub-par run in mid-July was slow out and not punished late by McCoull but bounced back with a big win when taken back to Hobart on July That made it two wins from four starts and there are more victories coming. Evidently wet tracks pose no problem. After a neat 5th on debut when missing the kick, she returned to Launceston 21 days later and was closing in very strongly against her fellow 3yos.
The dash she has shown at the end of both those starts will ensure she finds her first win before too long. Has registered two all-the-way wins at Launceston recently and he should be very competitive in better class over the same journey. Presumably he still has plenty of improvement being a 4yo with only seven overall starts to his name.
Perfectly named for numerous puns. She jumped OK but was quick to drift back and settled a clear last giving the front runner about 12 lengths. The daughter of West Quest then hooked out wide in the straight and kept finding that line to be beaten only three lengths. The education will have done her good. Follow up. To illustrate that point, at Launceston on August 7, she drew the rail and after trailing up on the inside she got an absolute dream run through as they straightened.
She took the lead but the winner collared her right on the line. No excuses there but it proved she is nearly always hard to beat when given her chance. She is from 12 starts when drawing five or better, from 15 when drawn worse. Bet accordingly. In the first place, he advised you to bring your money and leave your credit and debit cards at home. I was at the track in September, , with Ian and perhaps the best newspaper selector in Australian racing over the past 30 years, John Michael.
I have no reason to change my views now. The second piece of advice was to ignore all tips at the racetrack. The next piece of advice was to be very careful with the early markets: once again, you can be misled here. This extends way past racing and into virtually all sports. Watch out for situations where, say, the second or third emergency is very strongly fancied in the market. The likelihood is that it will not get a run, and consequently anything else that is supported in that particular field will suffer from massive deductions.
Ironically, eight or nine times out of every 10, what happens is that the horse you have supported eventually opens in the final market at better odds than you have now accepted. Now that has to be a totally ridiculous state of affairs! I enjoyed the little bit of tongue in cheek that Ian concluded that chapter with: that you should save a 10 per cent open mind.
In other words, be prepared in those rare situations to either change your mind, or at the very least to throw something in or take it out at the death. No problem with that, is there? The following chapter dealt with the good old, ongoing, debates about staking: if it cannot win flat stakes it cannot win at all, progressive staking equals loss chasing, greed is the key to progressive staking, and conversely only an idiot bets at level stakes in this day and age.
You set your bank at a hundred units and you bet either 1 per cent or 0. That is an immutable law. You will always have a potential of a hundred losing bets in your bank, if you are betting to 0. If you have a better, or a more effective plan, please use it. Another of my long term fancies, the AB trifecta, got a run in the following chapter. It was followed by would you believe? Next there was a quiz.
The price was originally, of course, the odds, but with the advent of decimal. The uncertainty of betting odds-on and its inherent dangers came next, and even today we have people who swear by it. Not me. The answer to that question, by the way, was that in the same two horses fought out the Sydney and Melbourne Cups, but in reverse order. Wet tracks. And so to systems. I love systems.
You probably do too. I have a collection of somewhere between six and 10, And you never know, do you? I then provided 10 systemettes. And finally, I wrote half a dozen pages on last start winners and a few on my own ratings. Anyway, that will do for now.
Still, I kept thinking about it and figured I would pick a copy easily especially in Ireland! No such luck until I landed probably the last copy in Dublin and snapped it up without further assessment. I introduced myself and proceeded to have a short meander around the shop.
Short because the afternoon had started in almost pure sunshine but as I travelled turned into a potential and then actual thunderstorm. Misled by the weather at the start I had taken no umbrella and I lost that gamble because even leaving earlier than I would have liked my return to the hotel was that of a wet bedraggled blue heeler! Still two things locked into my thinking. This shop is one of only two purely gambling-focused that I know of in the world — the other I have also visited in Las Vegas — so they have a feel of the pulse of the balance of gambling from market demand.
As I feared, horseracing is down to a relatively small section of the total market although still selling and more sports betting or casino games orientated volumes are appearing. A sign of the times. The other item I picked up was a. It proved to be a good read about which I will say more later but if you want a copy there are a number at this shop so just hit the old Google button and away you go!
Poker machines are present — up to five a shop — and seemed to have more players than there were betters on the racing. There were three interested in the race but only two punters — I just watched. A good solid win even though I thought for a ghastly moment the he was going to get boxed in by the pacemaker from the same stable as Workforce, but once out he was too strong.
So two punters but five machines with four in action including right through the race. No interest at all. But we oldies may have to catch up. The apps world is on us and mobile betting also. One report I read. Does this spell the demise of many betting shops? Will this impact on your local TAB as such styles of betting presumably also grow here?
Probably not as much as one might think if we follow their patterns as they note about 50 per cent who bet online also bet in shops and in fact most bookmaking firms are expanding their dwellings. At least some tradition still holds. As I was driven past the course for the St. And that, of course, heralds in mouths of jumps racing. Enough idle pondering. The book. Well, it is called Beat the Bookies which is a fairly predictable title to catch the eye except the writer has actually done that and publically.
Not every year but many. His name is John Duggan and he is a graduate of Trinity College in Dublin but has turned his fine mind to broadcast journalism and sports reporting. He works through what he sees as the fundamentals derived from some periods in his early days of somewhat unorganised betting that led to his current disciplined approach. I liked his emphasis on aspects I regard as important such as record keeping, win staking, avoiding multiples or keeping them to a minimum and avoiding ante-post betting.
Not all would agree with all points but I was in harmony with the bulk. If you are into big race betting on British races he outlines his selection approach which has a statistical bent — e. The book is a good read for mine even if you do not bet on these races as you can learn from his approach. However, he also bets on sport and most especially golf, so many majors are analysed as well.
A sign of the times! Until next month — have fun punting! Eremein has a rating of His lifetime starts are 21, with 10 wins and 17 places in all. His wet track figures are three wins from three starts. He has a win strike rate of Just check the entries on any day.
If one of our horses is running, and it has won at the distance see last column , it qualifies. If more than one qualifies, our selection is the horse with the top figure. Do not do ANY maths. The TOP figure is our selection assessed highest for the distance. Example: Beaux Art is It qualifies in a m race, but so does Circles Of Gold who is assessed at Allow m either way up to m, then allow m from m to m.
Above m the horse must have won at m or more. Example: Beaux Art has 57kg. We deduct this from 62 and end up with 5. Circles Of Gold has 55kg. Deduct this from Some of the selections will be short, but the majority will be at very acceptable odds. If at the end of that series there is a profit, revert to the first bet. If not, the next 10 bets are at two units each.
If a profit is now shown overall, revert to the very first bet. If not, place a series of 10 three-unit bets, then if no overall profit, make a series of 10 four-unit bets. Whether or not a profit then exists, revert to the very start after the fortieth bet. To some extent, at least until probably the last six months or so, Chris was still relatively unknown by the vast rank and file of racegoers and punters.
He then established a marvellous run of wins at every Rosehill meeting, and for quite a while you can throw in any Sydney race meeting as well. Chris Waller completed the Sydney premiership season with wins, including four winners on the final Saturday, just to make his point. The amazing thing was that these horses were not unbackable.
That pushed him to the front of the pile state wide, and so far as Sydney was concerned, it left his nearest rivals Peter Snowden and Gai Waterhouse way, way behind on eminently respectable Gerald Ryan and Guy Walter were close up. In many cases of course this is because the top rider is already engaged for a stable horse in the race. This used to be the case and it quite often looked to have justification behind it. I think the bottom line here is that quite often the trainer will honestly not know which of his or her horses is likely to win.
All he can do is present them at the racetrack, on the day, as. In some cases this can even mean that he continues to use a particular rider on the horse most favoured in the market, because that rider has proved successful with that horse in other words they work as a combination — it may be a question of weight carried, or simply an understanding between horse and jockey.
This can prove quite tricky for any punter, especially if the punter has a specific interest in that stable. Or it could be that a claim of anything up to 3 kg is seen as enormously significant for the particular horse because of any number of reasons.
The Waterhouse stable cannot put Nash Rawiller on a horse which is on the limit weight, so one of the challenges for the punter is to work out just what this rider is worth in terms of natural advantage to a horse which possibly is not absolutely equal to one of the other entered stable horses. Not easy is it?
Frankel is being talked about as belonging among the immortals, but when they are beating three horses in fairly pedestrian style, you have to reserve judgement, especially from so far away. As far as our state was concerned, a long way from England or for that matter most other places, Black Caviar was obviously the thrill of the season and the weather was kind a very rare and singular thing during the carnival.
One thing that did come to my eye was the list of all time rankings. The unarguably immortal Sea Bird tops the all time list on It was gratifying to see that the first great horse I remember people raving about in my childhood, Tulloch, was well up the list. However, I do know that The Optimist has been turning cartwheels. His name was Brigadier Gerard. The Optimist never tires of telling me about the demolition job one of his best-known terms that this horse did on the incredibly gifted Mill Reef during the years he was in England.
You can read all about this great animal in a marvellous book, The Brigadier, published by Secker and Warburg towards the end of the seventies. I think we do have a problem here, in that there is an inconsistency between states. Let me put it this way. Conversely, if I am on the runnerup, I would infinitely prefer to be in Sydney.
I watched two protests in Melbourne very closely in the past few weeks and I was on the winner in both of them. Perhaps you have some thoughts on this subject that you can email Brian for his letters page. As usual, the PPM team has the big race well and truly covered. The October magazine will be a Caulfield Cup Special Issue, with our leading writers handing out their advance selections.
He presents a betting plan that zeroes in on horses in top winning condition. Denton Jardine explains how it works and how it was developed. If you want a system that sticks to ONE set of races, and has a big strike rate, then this is the one you want. It was a huge win, very easy, very impressive. Just missed against boom sprinter Rain Affair, suggesting he can still win a nice race, and soon. An example of an essential ingredient, to my mind, is some aspect of the actual horse contesting the race.
What in your opinion are the essential ingredients of a good system? There again, you might be looking at the market. One of the chief arguments which swings either way in this matter is the percentage question. That can vary, in my experience, according to venue and particularly according to the size of the actual race programs that are being taken into account.
For example, Sydney or Melbourne. Or TABs. The essence of the whole thing is that it comes down to chance and opinion. These two major factors form the markets, every market in fact. I enjoy homing in on a race where I believe the wrong horse has been made favourite. You see, there still can be opportunity amongst the other horses to pick out a couple that are anomalies.
In its way, this is a system, or at least the start of one.
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